The Starks are in a big heap of trouble. The next episode of Game of Thrones Season 6 features the Battle for Winterfell, when Jon Snow and Sansa Stark will attack their family’s ancient seat with a ragtag army of wildlings, Northerners and hopefully Arryns. It’s going to be a tough battle, but let’s just say for the moment that Jon and Sansa win. This is by no means a sure thing, but let’s pretend they root out Ramsay Bolton (who is very excited to fight them), kill him dead and take over Winterfell again. That is not the end of their woes. It’s just the beginning, because it means war with the Iron Throne.

The Battle For Winterfell Means War With The Iron Throne

Ramsay Bolton doesn’t just happen to be in Winterfell. It is, by the law of the Seven Kingdoms, his castle. He is the Warden of the North and lord paramount of the entire region, a position his father earned for betraying Robb Stark at the Red Wedding. It was his reward from the Lannisters: Winterfell, and supreme rule of the North.

The Starks certainly deserve their castle back, and Davos is right that they need peace in the North to have a serious shot at stopping the White Walkers. But taking back Winterfell won’t mean peace. If Jon and Sansa win the siege, the Lannisters have every reason to go to war with them in turn. The Starks are still technically at war with the Lannisters anyway, and Cersei at least still wants Sansa dead. Jaime, on the other hand, doesn’t particularly care. Still, it’s bad news Brienne told Jaime about Sansa and Jon’s plan. The Lannisters will eventually move to counter the threat.

If the Starks don’t kill Ramsay Bolton, they’ll have a far more serious situation on their hands. With Bolton dead without an heir, the Stark’s victory would be a fait accompli, and one welcomed by most of the rest of the North. The Lannisters could wage war against the Starks to stop their return to power, but they couldn’t put the Boltons back in charge of the North. If Ramsay isn’t killed, that all changes: He’s a point for the Lannisters to rally around.

If Ramsay is dead and if Cersei loses her upcoming trial, it’s not impossible to imagine that the great and righteous King Tommen the Blessed would let bygones be bygones, if the Starks swear fealty to him. It would be a shocking overture toward peace, but if the Starks seem like more trouble than they’re worth to a king who has enough problems already, it could happen. But the most likely option is more straightforward: The Starks take Winterfell, and the Lannisters mobilize just as they did against Riverrun. By doing whatever it takes.