Rickon Stark is in big trouble in Game of Thrones season 6. If you saw the newest episode, you know what I’m talking about. If you didn’t, get thee to a nunnery—a nunnery that has HBO Go. But seriously. Rickon’s so screwed. He’s going to go the way of Shaggydog and be dead in a quick jiffy, and then the only hope for the Starks will lie with Sansa—or in Winds of Winter, where Rickon will probably be just fine.

Rickon Stark Is Gonna Die

Rickon Stark is now in the custody of the Lord of Winterfell and Warden of the North, Ramsay Bolton. That’s a great place to be if you like getting tortured and then murdered! But seriously, Smalljon Umber turning Rickon over to Ramsay Bolton is a big deal. And this Rickon is probably the real deal—after all, Osha’s there too.

Needless to say, Ramsay Bolton is not a merciful man. So far in Game of Thrones season 6, he’s murdered his own brother, stepmother and father! He also has a bone to pick with the Starks, since Sansa just recently escaped his grasp. Ramsay won’t let that happen again with another Stark. Osha’s wily, but the Boltons will keep a close eye on her and Rickon. There will be no escape for them.

Likewise, Ramsay has no incentive to keep Rickon alive. Theon Greyjoy, his plaything, was a valuable hostage—the son of the lord and king of the Iron Islands. Sansa, likewise, was his key to locking down Winterfell and the North permanently, by uniting his line with the Starks. It would confer an air of legitimacy (cf. his sham marriage with “Arya Stark” in the books) to the Boltons’ usurpation of the North.

Rickon, however, can only be a threat to Ramsay. With Robb dead and Bran missing, he is the actual head of House Stark, the true Warden of the North. Bran is probably not coming back anytime soon. That leaves Rickon as Ned’s heir—and the greatest threat to Ramsay’s claim. And Ramsay isn’t one to mince around. He may toy with Rickon a bit, but he won’t put everything he’s won at risk. He’ll kill him off—especially if he finds out Jon Snow is headed his way.

Then only Sansa will be left to restore the Starks’ good graces—because Bran and Arya, even if they come back, will be irrevocably changed. Unless, of course, Rickon has changed too. Maybe he’s a lot wilier than he used to be. We’ll surely find out.