Once so far in A Song of Ice and Fire, King’s Landing has come under siege. That was the Battle of the Blackwater. In that battle, the climax of Clash of Kings, the Lannisters fought against Stannis Baratheon in a close-fought siege, and only barely managed to win by using the power of wildfire and a last-minute alliance with the Tyrells. Since then, King’s Landing has been firmly under Lannister control. But it won’t always be that way. War will come again to Blackwater Bay, with fire and blood—and the first battle will seem but a prelude.

The Coming Second Battle Of The Blackwater

In the first battle of the Blackwater, most of us rooted against the Lannisters. Sure, Stannis used evil blood magic, but his cause was righteous, and the Lannisters were incestuous, murderous and terrible to Sansa Stark. Next time around, the Lannisters— or whoever holds King’s Landing at this point—will be the good guys, because their enemy will be a true invader.

That enemy, of course, is Daenerys Targaryen, her three dragons and her horde of Dothraki, Unsullied and free people of Slaver’s Bay. Daenerys has always been one for the symbolic—for instance, when she used fire in Game of Thrones season 6 to take control of the Dothraki horde. And she’ll consciously be recreating what her great ancestor did when he first came to Westeros. Daenerys will begin her war for Westeros the same place Aegon did, in the city whose name commemorates that event—King’s Landing.

The war will likely end with the Red Keep in ruins and King’s Landing a melted pile of slag. This is what happened to Harrenhal long ago and it is what Daenerys’s own prophecy has shown— an abandoned Red Keep, filled with snow (or could that be Jon Snow? But that’s another story!). The Lannisters cannot win against the dragons, they cannot win against the Dothraki, and they cannot win against the Unsullied. All three together leaves the Lannisters no chance. Especially since the two men who saved them last time, Tywin and Tyrion, are respectively dead and on Team Daenerys.

The first Battle of the Blackwater may have oddly presaged the coming second one. Then as now, the invader is a champion of blood magic—though Stannis left his sorceror at home, Daenerys’s magic is less overt, but entirely her own. Then as now, eldritch fire shall turn the tide. Last time, it swung the battle to the Lannisters and left Stannis’s fleet in ruins. This time, Daenerys’s dragons are the trump card. And she won’t hesitate to use them, and it will leave Blackwater Bay—and all of King’s Landing—in flames.